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Data to develop the forecasting model

The use of quarterly data to develop the forecasting model Yt= a +bYt?1 is an example of which forecasting technique?


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Barometric forecasting

Time-series forecasting

Survey and opinion

Econometric methods based on an understanding of the underlying economic variables involved

Input-output analysis

Question 2

Time-series forecasting models:


are useful whenever changes occur rapidly and wildly

are more effective in making long-run forecasts than short-run forecasts

are based solely on historical observations of the values of the variable being forecasted

attempt to explain the underlying causal relationships which produce the observed outcome

Question 3

Consumer expenditure plans is an example of a forecasting method. Which of the general categories best described this example?


time-series forecasting techniques

barometric techniques

survey techniques and opinion polling

econometric techniques

input-output analysis

Question 4

Which of the following barometric indicators would be the most helpful for forecasting future sales for an industry?


lagging economic indicators.

leading economic indicators.

coincident economic indicators.

wishful thinking

Question 5

Smoothing techniques are a form of ____ techniques which assume that there is an underlying pattern to be found in the historical values of a variable that is being forecast.


opinion polling

barometric forecasting

econometric forecasting

time-series forecasting

Question 6

The variation in an economic time-series which is caused by major expansions or contractions usually of greater than a year in duration is known as:


secular trend

cyclical variation

seasonal effect

unpredictable random factor

Question 7

In an open economy with few capital restrictions and substantial import-export trade, a rise in interest rates and a decline in the producer price index of inflation will


raise the value of the currency

lower the nominal interest rate

increase the volume of trading in the foreign exchange market

lower the trade-weighted exchange rate

increase consumer inflation.

Question 8

In a recession, the trade balance often improves because


service exports exceed manufactured good exports

banks sell depressed assets

fewer households can afford luxury imports

direct investment abroad declines

the capital account exceeds the current account

Question 9

An appreciation of the U.S. dollar has what impact on Harley-Davidson (HD), a U.S. manufacturer of motorcycles?


domestic sales of HD motorcycles increase and foreign sales of HD motorcycles increase

domestic sales of HD motorcycles decrease and foreign sales of HD motorcycles increase

domestic sales of HD motorcycles increase and foreign sales of HD motorcycles decrease

domestic sales of HD motorcycles decrease and foreign sales of HD motorcycles decrease

Question 10

If the British pound (?) appreciates by 10% against the dollar:


both the US importers from Britain and US exporters to Britain will be helped by the appreciating pound.

the US exporters will find it harder to sell to foreign customers in Britain.

the US importer of British goods will tend to find that their cost of goods rises, hurting its bottom line.

both US importers of British goods and exporters to Britain will be unaffected by changes in foreign exchange rates.

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