18-4a Political Risk The potential for a country’s political forces to negatively affect the performance of businesses operating within its borders is referred to as political risk. Often, this risk is related to the instability of a host nation’s government. Potential problems range from threats as trivial as new regulations that restrict the content of television advertising to a government takeover of private assets. Political developments can threaten access to an export market, require a firm to reveal trade secrets, or even demand that work be completed in-country. Many large corporations maintain a risk assessment office with staff trained to determine the risk profile of the individual countries for which they have planned projects. Because small firms cannot afford the cost of staffing such an office, some turn to inexpensive tools for risk assessment. One helpful resource is Euromoney magazine’s annual “Country Risk Rankings,” which provides a general sense of the political risks that companies will face when doing business abroad. Small businesses can develop international growth plans using thesc insights and make appropriate adjustments to their strategies. It’s not a perfect method, but it is low cost and far better than planning a global strategy with no information at all. 18-4b Economic Risk Economic risk is the probability that a country’s government will mismanage its economy and affect the business environment in ways that hinder the performance of firms operating there.
Economic risk and political risk are therefore related. “Two of the most serious problems resulting from economic mismanagement are inflation and fluctuations in exchange rates. While a more complete discussion of these factors is beyond the scope of this book, it is important to recognize that inflation reduces the value of a country’s currency on the foreign exchange market, thereby decreasing the value of cash flows that the firm receives from its operations abroad. Exchange rates represent the value of one country’s currency relative to that of another country for example, the number of Mexican pesos that can be purchased with one U.S. dollar. Sudden or unexpected changes in these rates can be a serious problem for small international businesses, whether they export to that market or have a Jocal presence there. Mary Ellen Mooney of Mooney Farms recognized the potential of exporting her sundried tomato products to France and came close to striking a deal with a local distributor some years ago, but the negotiations fell through when the exchange rate between the dollar and the curo changed.
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